Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MISSISSIPPI STATE -105 over SMU

Humphrey Coliseum – Starkville, MS

7:00 PM ET. On paper, SMU checks every box the public loves: undefeated at 7–0, positioned significantly higher in most power ratings, and drifting toward top-25 consideration. Mississippi State? A break-even 3–3 and not a single cover to their name. And yet, with all those surface-level advantages, the Mustangs are laying only a single point. That alone tells you the story.

When you peel back the layers, the discrepancy becomes clear. SMU has benefitted from a soft runway, ranking 68th nationally in KenPom’s Luck metric while playing the 328th-rated strength of schedule. In short: they’ve faced almost no resistance. Mississippi State, by contrast, sits in the middle of the pack in luck but has already navigated a much tougher slate — 135th in SOS — with three true road tests at Iowa State, Kansas State, and New Mexico accounting for their defeats.

Flip the schedules and the Bulldogs likely own a similar glossy record to SMU. But the market isn’t pricing potential or résumé quality — it’s pricing wins and losses at face value, and that’s often where value emerges. The Mustangs have racked up victories without ever leaving Dallas–Fort Worth against the likes of Tarleton State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and others of that profile. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has already battled tournament-caliber talent in hostile gyms.

Now the roles reverse. SMU steps into its most demanding matchup of the season, and for the first time must prove itself away from home. Mississippi State gets to regroup in Starkville with a manageable assignment compared to the high-major gauntlet they’ve faced. The line is telling you everything you need to know: the wrong team is being asked to do too much. Mississippi State gets it done.

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