Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Wagner +130 ML over MANHATTAN

Draddy Gymnasium – The Bronx, NY

5:00 PM ET. We understand the reluctance to back a side that is 0-5 on the year, but as we said in our Columbia/Fairfield write-up: context is key. The Seahawks have lived out of a suitcase, this is their sixth straight road game and they have played a gauntlet - the 33rd toughest schedule in the country thus far. They have also had some of the worst luck - 352nd in Ken Pom's Luck quotient which means this team has endured several bad breaks. We can point them out. A one point loss at UMBC 10 days ago; a two-point loss at Fordham before that, and four days prior to that result in The Bronx, a five-point loss at Seton Hall. Three straight games lost by inches, but most recently the Seahawks were whacked by Georgetown four days ago, when they fell 92-75. The market sees an 0-5 team and runs. But what would be the case if Wagner had upset Hall and closed out Fordham and UMBC? They'd be 3-2 here and likely a significant favorite. When the market judges results and not ingredients, these things happen.

Now let’s look at Manhattan. The Jaspers’ 3–3 record is a mirage. One win came against a DII opponent, another required a late push against Utah Tech where Manhattan was an underdog in their own building, and their lone road win was against Mississippi Valley State — a program that annually ranks dead last in Division I. Whenever Manhattan has faced real competition, the results have been lopsided: 30-plus point losses to USC, Hawaii, and Texas A&M.

So why isn’t Wagner the favorite? Because optics overpower reality. Manhattan has beaten no one of consequence and been blown off the court repeatedly. This price is a misprint based on aesthetics not substance. Wrong side favored. Wagner outright.

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