Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Fairfield +120 Columbia

Leo D. Mahoney Arena – Fairfield, CT

7:00 PM ET. Yes, we’re back fading Columbia again — and for good reason. The Lions enter this game unbeaten ATS at 5-0-1 and riding two straight blowout wins of 15+ points. On the surface, power metrics would normally command a bigger spread than what we’re seeing here before we consider the optics. But the Lions aren’t even spotting a three-pointer here and that tells the real story.

Columbia’s shiny start comes with an asterisk the size of Manhattan. Their strength of schedule sits near the basement at 332nd nationally, and they rank 18th in KenPom’s Luck metric — meaning the Lions have not only been feasting on cupcakes, they’ve been getting every bounce, whistle, and break along the way. That combination almost always leads to an inflated assessment by the market, and this line suggests the point of implosion has arrived.

Fairfield steps in with the physical profile needed to expose Columbia’s fragility. This is a grinder’s matchup, priced as a tight-possession game, and the Stags have the ability to win the battle on the glass — a vital ingredient against a Columbia team that leans heavily on perimeter shooting (top 25 nationally in three-point percentage). But playing away from home in a more hostile environment, if those threes stop falling, all that “luck” evaporates quickly.

The number is the giveaway. If Columbia weren’t performing at a premium level in cashing tickets and catching bounces while doing so - they would likely be catching points here, not laying them. The oddsmakers are signaling that regression is on the horizon, and coming soon. We’re backing the notion that it is tonight. Stags outright.Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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