Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tennessee +150 ML over Houston (Neutral Site)

MGM Arena – Las Vegas, NV

Players Era Festival

6:00 PM ET. The last time these programs crossed paths, Tennessee walked off the floor with a bruise that still hasn’t faded. Houston dismantled the Vols in the Elite Eight, suffocating them in a 69–50 grinder that ultimately launched the Cougars toward the National Championship Game. That night, Houston was a small three-point favorite—and here the number lands in that same neighborhood. But the circumstances aren’t the same. The oddsmakers want it to appear that way.

Houston carries the familiar shine: #2 ranking, a national profile, and the aura of a program expected to compete for a #1 seed in March Madness again. Naturally, the market drifts in their direction. Tennessee, on the other hand, shows up as the #20 team in the country—further down the board, far less glamor, and overshadowed by what happened last March.

But the Volunteers arriving in Las Vegas are not the same bunch Houston throttled. Tennessee has ripped off five straight wins to begin their campaign, and they’ve been surgical in doing so. They’re piling on over 90 points per contest, defending with conviction and giving up just 65 points on average, and modelling consistency. They may, in fact, be better than last year’s version despite the personnel turnover.

This is an example of legacy pricing. You’re paying for not just UH’s ranking but also for the echo of last year’s matchup. Meanwhile, the line mirrors the spread from that Elite Eight showdown, as if nothing has changed on either side. That is the trap. The folks who work in those buildings around the MGM Arena are issuing a huge dare to get on the Cougars here. Why not? It looks easy. We’ll gladly go the other direction. Vols get even.

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