Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas +11 over Duke (Neutral Site Game)

Madison Square Garden – New York, NY

State Farm Champions Classic

9:00 PM ET. Revenge is the headline everyone wants to slap on this game — but that storyline almost always leads bettors astray. Sure, Duke remembers last year’s overtime loss to Kansas when the Jayhawks were sitting atop the polls. But acting as if Kansas doesn’t have just as much incentive tonight is laughable. A win here would steady a program many have claimed is slipping. Motivation is equal on both ends, not one-sided.

Here’s where the real story lies: Duke is a perfect 4–0 both straight up and against the number. They opened the year blasting a legitimate Texas squad by 15 and have dismantled every mid-major they’ve seen since. They look sharp. They look dominant. And because of that, the market has them priced like a freight train — just like the Yankees whenever they catch fire. Once Duke starts rolling, the market piles in on the bandwagon, and the price inflates automatically.

Kansas, meanwhile, enters with a very different perception. They slid out of the rankings in 2024, bowed out early in March, and looked shaky in their early-season loss to North Carolina — a team comparable to Duke in pedigree and athletic makeup. Because of that, the Jayhawks are being treated like they’re miles off the pace. But let’s be real — if Duke weren’t scorching hot, this number would be at most, Kansas catching a single possession.

What this number tells us is simple: Duke is being graded on form, and Kansas is being punished on perception. Yet stylistically, KU has enough talent and wherewithal to stay inside this number. The Jayhawks don’t need to be perfect — they just need to be themselves. Upset potential? Absolutely. But we’ll take the points in a game we know the Rock Chalks can win outright.

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