Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change
ARIZONA STATE +13½ over Gonzaga
Desert Financial Arena – Tempe, AZ
11:00 PM ET. Gonzaga could not script a cleaner launch to the season. Three games, three wins, three blowout covers. Most notably in high-profile tilts against Oklahoma and Creighton, the Zags didn’t just beat them—they dismantled them. An average margin of victory exceeding 20 points. When a program with Gonzaga’s reputation starts stacking these kinds of wins on quality opponents, the market immediately reacts, and right now the Zags are priced like a runaway freight train.
Arizona State, on the other hand, brings far less shine. Two victories, yes, but against the lightest of lightweights – two mid-majors from Utah. Last year’s 13–20 finish still lingers, and those résumé anchors create the illusion of a massive mismatch. On the surface, this looks like Gonzaga rolling into Tempe to pick up another comfortable W. But the deeper you look, the less straightforward it becomes.
This is the Zags’ first true road test, and they are laying nearly two full touchdowns in a venue that can give high-profile visitors problems. Arizona State will have an animated building behind them, and more importantly, they have an offense that can keep pace. The Sun Devils are currently pushing 81 points per contest, generated by volume shooting, strong distribution, and relentless work on the glass. They rank top-20 in both shot attempts and made baskets, and they crack the top-15 nationally in assists. Their rebounding numbers also exceed Gonzaga’s early-season output, which is critical when facing a team that thrives on controlling possessions.
If ASU maintains offensive rhythm, creates and takes advantage of second-chance opportunities, and uses the home environment to disrupt Gonzaga’s flow, this game becomes a far different puzzle than the number suggests. The Bulldogs are elite—but this price is inflated off dominance earned entirely at home. The problem is this game is in Tempe with a team that can trade punches. Arizona State has enough shooting, presence on the boards, and an electric atmosphere behind them to make this competitive—and potentially do far more than that. ASU can win outright but we are backing the Sun Devils with inflated points which is the epitome of value.
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Our Pick
Arizona St +13½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)
