Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MICHIGAN STATE -2½ over Arkansas

Breslin Center – East Lansing, MI

7:00 PM ET. We remember last year’s March Madness run — the Razorbacks under John Calipari marching all the way to the Sweet 16. Along the way, they knocked off Kansas, a true Blue Blood and a fixture in March lore, then dispatched #2 seed St. John’s in a renewal of the fabled Pitino–Calipari rivalry. They finally bowed out narrowly to Texas Tech, but the impression they left stuck.

Fast forward to this season: Arkansas opened on Monday by cruising to a 109–77 win over Southern as a 26.5-point favorite. The Hogs have now covered five straight. Their stock is red-hot, and the market loves a heater.

Meanwhile, Michigan State enters as the team with far less buzz. They too made the tournament last year, also exiting in the same round as Arkansas, falling 64–70 to eventual Final Four finalist Auburn — a half-point failure to cover. Then came Monday’s opener against Colgate, an 80–69 win where Sparty failed to deliver against a 21-point spread. Three straight non-covers for the Spartans. As a result, they lack allure. They don’t look like “Michigan State of old,” and the market reacts harshly to that. Arkansas is the trendy team; Michigan State is the stale one.

But here’s the reminder: Michigan State still has Tom Izzo. And Izzo in big games — especially in East Lansing — knows a thing or two about getting a win. That’s why they’re favored. Oddsmakers are telling us where the real strength lies. While the market will lean toward the beguiling underdog that’s been cashing tickets and carries the shinier recent résumé, the truth is that Michigan State’s diminished stock is creating value. Arkansas may be trendy. Michigan State may be unglamorous. But this is a spot built for Sparty. We’re rolling with Michigan State.

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