Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NORTH CAROLINA -1½ over Kansas

Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC

7:00 PM ET. Kansas basketball has been playing for over 125 years, and yet they have never set foot in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, until today. The Tar Heels and the Jayhawks — both basketball royalty — meeting in the Dean Dome is the NCAA hardwood equivalent of the Cowboys playing the Packers at Lambeau. Historic, heavyweight stuff.

What’s significant here is that despite these teams crossing paths plenty of times on the biggest stage in college basketball — March Madness — Kansas has flat-out owned North Carolina. The Tar Heels haven’t beaten the Rock Chalks in over 20 years, and that absolutely carries weight when the market assesses this matchup. The narrative writes itself: Kansas owns UNC.

But never — not once — have the Jayhawks played North Carolina in Chapel Hill. That matters, and we must annotate that.

Here’s another angle: look at Kansas’ last five wins over North Carolina. In the last four, Kansas was the favorite. Meaning, we haven’t seen Kansas in the underdog role against the Tar Heels in 17 years. The barely-ranked Tar Heels are the chalk here. So let’s stack this together:

- North Carolina is the favorite in this game

- Kansas has never played UNC in Chapel Hill

- UNC hasn’t beaten Kansas in over 20 years

- Kansas has been the favorite in every meeting for nearly two decades

- Kansas is the higher-ranked team — yet they are the dog

This line is speaking loudly. It’s telling us that Kansas’ first trip to Chapel Hill is not going to be the triumphant excursion they hoped for. And laying only a basket, all we need North Carolina to do is win the game — not cover a hefty number they’d normally command in this venue. At home, the Tar Heels are one of the toughest outs in the country, and here we get them at a reduced price. This is the value play of the day.

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