Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Phoenix -9½ over Golden State

10:00 PM EST. This number smells, and that is exactly the point. Phoenix is laying 9½ points at home after getting embarrassed in its season opener, and every instinct you have says to take the other side. The Suns lost to Portland on Wednesday and looked terrible doing it — 6-of-32 from three-point range, outrebounded 56-39, Devin Booker taking just 13 shots and not attempting a single three in his 12th season as the franchise player. The opponent is Golden State, the name brand, the team everybody's first thought is to back getting nearly double digits. The computer model says Warriors 116-100. The moneyline pick is Golden State at +312. Every tout, every model, every casual bettor lands on the same side of this game. When everybody is on the dog, the dog is usually the trap.

That does not mean Phoenix is good — the Suns have real problems, and Wednesday exposed most of them. Their three-point shooting is a genuine question after the offseason deal thinned out their shooters, Luke Kennard is questionable with a knee, and Mark Williams is out with a shoulder. But look at what Golden State is bringing into this building: the Warriors are 0-2, they're missing Jimmy Butler with a knee injury, Kristaps Porzingis is out sick, Moses Moody is out with a knee, and they're playing their third game in four days, the second night of a back-to-back. Meanwhile Phoenix has had two full days off to sit with that Portland embarrassment and fix the effort problem that had their own fans fuming — the Blazers were the team showing heart and grit, not the Suns, and that is the kind of thing a proud team answers at home.

The recent history backs the price, too. Phoenix went 48-34 against the spread last season and 6-5 as a favorite of 9½ or more, while Golden State went 1-10 last season when set as an underdog of +312 or bigger. This is the trap of the young season so far: a big, shiny number on a famous team that everybody wants to take, against a home favorite that just got humiliated and has had two days to get angry about it. Who in their right mind lays 9½ with Phoenix? Nobody. Which is why we're doing it.

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