Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Antonio -6½ -110 over New York

NBA Finals Game 2

8:30 PM EST. Forget the injury angles and all the noise surrounding personnel. This play is about market perception and nothing else. The New York Knicks have become the hottest ticket in basketball. They've won and covered seven straight games and have cashed in 11 of their last 12. In Game 1 of this series, they trailed by 13 points in the third quarter, stormed back, and delivered yet another winning ticket to anyone backing them. At some point, however, the point spread is supposed to be the great equalizer. When a team keeps covering at that rate, the market eventually adjusts. That's where we believe we are now.

The most telling number on the board isn't what happened in Game 1. It's what happened afterward. San Antonio opened as a 4½-point favorite in the series opener, lost the game outright, and now finds itself laying 6½. If oddsmakers were truly reacting to results, the number would move the other way. Instead, they're increasing it. That's a giant clue. The sportsbooks know exactly where the public money is headed. They know bettors have been rewarded repeatedly by backing New York, and they know many won't hesitate to grab the points again. We're not interested in following the crowd.

Lost in the final score of Game 1 is the fact that San Antonio largely controlled the game for long stretches. The Spurs built a double-digit lead, dominated portions of the paint, and watched the game slip away because of poor execution late and a complete collapse on the glass. Victor Wembanyama was the first to admit he played below his standard, and despite finishing with 26 points and 12 rebounds, he looked uncomfortable for much of the night. That's actually encouraging for San Antonio. The Spurs played far from their best basketball and still found themselves in position to win late.

Meanwhile, New York continues to receive enormous credit for a playoff run that has produced ticket after ticket for its backers. Fair enough. The Knicks have earned respect. But respect and value are two different things. At some point the market pushes a team's price beyond a sustainable level, and we believe that's happening now. San Antonio is still the superior team, still has the best player on the floor, and now returns for Game 2 with the urgency that comes from avoiding an 0-2 hole. The Knicks may continue their remarkable run, but we're betting the point spread has finally overcorrected and that the Spurs respond with a statement performance.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------