Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta +110 over Charlotte

7:30 PM EST Atlanta comes into this matchup priced like a team still searching for direction, and that disconnect is where the value sits. Since moving on from Trae Young, the Hawks have quietly stabilized their offense and leaned fully into Jalen Johnson as the engine. The ball is moving better, the usage is more balanced, and Atlanta has been far less predictable late in games. They’ve won six of their last eight not by fluke shooting nights, but by consistently generating high-quality looks and forcing opponents to defend multiple creators. That matters against a Charlotte team whose defensive metrics still lag behind the surface-level win streak. Atlanta’s ability to rank near the top of the league in assists while keeping turnovers in check gives them a reliable floor, especially against teams that rely heavily on pace and shot-making.

Charlotte’s eight-game winning streak is impressive, but it has also inflated market perception. During this run, the Hornets have leaned heavily on offensive efficiency and perimeter shooting, which can swing quickly from night to night. Defensively, they remain vulnerable in half-court sets and can struggle to contain versatile forwards — a problem when facing Johnson, who can score, rebound, and facilitate without dominating the ball. Atlanta’s defense isn’t elite, but it does force turnovers at a high rate, and that’s a key pressure point against a Charlotte team that still ranks among the league’s looser ball-handling groups. If the Hornets aren’t getting clean looks early in the shot clock, their efficiency drops sharply, and that’s when games tighten.

From a betting perspective, this is a classic spot to fade the hotter team and buy into the steadier profile at a discounted number. Atlanta doesn’t need to dominate — they just need to play their game, control tempo, and force Charlotte to execute in the half court rather than run freely. With Charlotte’s streak baked into the line, backing the Hawks against the spread offers value on a team whose underlying numbers are stronger than their record suggests. If Atlanta continues to share the ball, limit fouls, and let Johnson dictate the matchup, they’re well positioned to win outright — in a game the market may be mispricing based on recent momentum rather than matchup reality.

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