Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

SAN ANTONIO -2 over New York

Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, TX

7:00 PM ET. This is one of those lines that speaks louder than any trend sheet or box score. New York just beat San Antonio convincingly in the NBA Cup Final two weeks ago, and since then the Knicks have continued to stack wins. By all surface-level logic, they should be the side drawing support here — yet the Spurs are the team installed as the favorite. When a number contradicts public perception this sharply, the market is usually telling you something.

Ask yourself: who wouldn’t bet New York? The Knicks have won five of their last seven, and they’ve done so against credible opposition — Miami, Cleveland, and at Atlanta among them. The narrative builds itself: the Knicks are playing confident, winning basketball and already proved they can handle San Antonio on a neutral floor. Casual bettors see that and immediately gravitate toward the underdog price.

But dig a little deeper. Four of those recent Knicks wins came by five points or fewer. That signals volatility more than dominance. New York has been living on late-game execution and favorable bounces rather than imposing control. That’s a dangerous profile on the road against a Spurs team that tends to elevate in marquee environments.

San Antonio’s recent form paints a misleading picture. Yes, they dropped games to Utah and Cleveland at home, but before that stretch the Spurs showed their ceiling by beating Oklahoma City twice in a back-to-back. Read that again. The Spurs can win here too, make no mistake.

Which brings us back to the number. If this were truly a confirmation of the prevailing Cup Final narrative, New York would not be catching points. The fact that oddsmakers are willing to post San Antonio as a favorite — even in spite of recent head-to-head history — signals confidence in the Spurs’ matchup edge and situational upside. The Knicks may look like the obvious side. The Spurs are the right one. We’ll follow the lead and lay the short number with San Antonio.

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