Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

DALLAS +135 ML over Miami

American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX

8:30 PM ET. Dallas comes into this matchup as the side that the market still refuses to believe in, and that’s exactly why the Mavericks are worth backing. Miami has earned its perception — the Heat are 14–7, a strong 13–8 ATS, and fresh off a dominant 17-point victory over the Clippers as a 6.5-point home favorite. But context is key, the Heat have won 10 of their 14 games in South Beach. On the road, they are just 4-5. But nevertheless, the optics make them look like the safe, predictable choice once again. But this is where the number starts to tell a different story.

Despite Miami’s perceived superiority, the Heat are laying only a small number. That is the first signal that oddsmakers are not fully buying the Heat in this spot. If the narrative were the only input, Miami would be laying far more points than this. But Dallas has turned a corner. Yes, quietly, the Mavericks have flipped a switch. It began with a nine-point underdog role against the Clippers, where the Mavs not only covered but won outright by four. Then they went into Denver — a brutal place to play — and beat the Nuggets 131–121 as an 11-point dog. Those aren’t fluke wins; that’s the sign of a team rediscovering rhythm, spacing, and late-game poise.

Tonight’s total of 240 is another clue. In a projected shootout, the underdog becomes more valuable because variance rises and possessions multiply. A high-scoring, back-and-forth contest inherently favors grabbing the plus-money side, especially when that side has shooters capable of trading blows all night. When we consider that Dallas is still under the market’s radar, that gives us tremendous value. This number says the Mavs are live — and we agree. Dallas outright.

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