Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

ORLANDO -8½ over Chicago

Amway Arena – Orlando, FL

7:30 PM ET. This is a miserable spot for Chicago, and the line reflects exactly that contrary to market belief. The Bulls have the offensive explosivity to enchant backers with these many points on offer. But there is a reason for the price.

The edges pile up quickly. Orlando happens to be one of the league’s most disciplined and physical defenses when it comes to closing out shooters. Orlando also owns a considerable physical advantage on the glass, and that alone becomes a separator. Second-chance points tilt naturally toward the Magic, while the Bulls—who sit 28th in opponent field goals made and 29th in opponent field-goal attempts—allow far too many clean looks. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Magic team that doesn’t need to be elite offensively to produce a comfortable margin; they only need volume, and Chicago reliably provides it to every opponent. Their lack of defensive fortitude only enhances the prospects of Orlando finding its stroke and clamping down on the back-end when the Bulls have the ball.

The Magic also thrive at home, where their defensive intensity heightens and their rhythm becomes far more stable. Chicago, on the other hand, has not traveled well and frequently unravels when forced into physical, grind-heavy environments—exactly the environment Orlando will create in their own building. This isn’t a complicated cap. The Bulls’ greatest strength is neutralized, their weaknesses are magnified, and Orlando’s stylistic advantages line up cleanly across the board. The number is this large for a reason. Lay the lumber.

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