Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Antonio -2½ -105 over Golden State

Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, TX

9:30 PM ET. Handicapping this game requires ignoring the final score from two nights ago and instead examining how that result occurred. Golden State beat San Antonio outright in this same price range, and at first glance, the reaction should be simple: take the Warriors again at a similar number. But the oddsmakers reposted San Antonio as the favorite at nearly identical pricing for a reason. That alone should raise eyebrows. When a team wins as a short dog and the line barely budges, it means the books believe the result was misleading rather than predictive. And in this case, it absolutely was.

Golden State’s victory hinged almost entirely on one explosive performance — Stephen Curry putting up 46 points, far above his standard scoring output of 28 per night. Curry can explode anytime, yes, but a near-50-piece is an outlier, not a baseline. If he posts even his average scoring night on Wednesday, the Spurs win comfortably. The rest of the Warriors’ roster did very little to tilt the matchup, and San Antonio controlled large portions of the game despite the final margin.

Box scores often mask context. They don’t show when one superstar carries an entire result on his back, nor do they reflect the sustainability of that type of path to victory. Golden State needed something memorable from Curry just to squeak by. That’s not repeatable, especially in a back-to-back rematch where the opponent can adjust specifically to that outburst.

Beating the same team twice on the second night in a row is difficult in the NBA under any circumstances. Doing it when the first win was the product of a statistical spike is even harder. San Antonio remains the more balanced and reliable team possession-to-possession, and the fact that the line didn’t move after their loss is the clearest indicator that the authors of the line still trust the Spurs more here. If Curry detonates again, so be it — but the process demands sticking with San Antonio.

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