Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Antonio -4½ over CHICAGO

United Center – Chicago, IL

8:00 PM ET. At first glance this looks like the easiest play on the entire board. Chicago is undefeated at home at 5-0 and has been cashing tickets at a reliable rate with a 6-2-1 mark against the spread. The Bulls have become one of the early feel-good stories of the season. They play with energy and the market loves them for it. San Antonio, by comparison, has been great overall but only average on the road. On paper, most bettors instinctively land on Chicago without a second thought. That is exactly why this number exists.

The Bulls are the trendy underdog tonight. Not just with points, but as an outright winner on the Monkey Line. Every online tout and the man on the street alike see the same thing: unbeaten at home, catching more than a possession, and riding a six-game winning streak in this head-to-head series. Chicago has also covered five of those six. Historical dominance, home dominance, and profitability all point in one direction. The oddsmakers meanwhile are digging their heels the other way. When everything lines up that cleanly, you already know the trap is set.

Here is the thing – Chicago is a team that doesn’t lead with their defense and that’s a problem when we consider who wears San Antonio black and silver, one Victor Wembanyama. Wemby is a man that drives the Spurs engine and if he gets going, the supporting cast around him kicks off too. Chicago has no real counter for him. Few teams do. But that intangible does not show up in simple home and road splits. Bottom line, the books have tipped their hands. San Antonio is the play, not Chicago.

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