Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

DALLAS +125 ML over Milwaukee

American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX

8:30 PM ET. The tale is one of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Deer lost in the Cream City to Houston yesterday by seven, but the market will forgive that because the Rockets are a championship contender. Dallas? Not so much. They’ve been a disappointment.

Milwaukee has beaten Dallas six straight times and gone 5-0-1 against the spread during that run. The matchup history leans heavily toward the Bucks. Under normal conditions, with that level of dominance in what many will label a bounce-back situation, the Bucks would be laying a far steeper price. They are not.

The line is built on how the market continues to overvalue the Bucks because of said historical edge combined with the Mavericks’ early season woes. Oddsmakers know the public will gravitate toward bounce-back angles, so the number reflects anticipation rather than reality. Milwaukee we remind you is on the back-end of a back-to-back. Rest does not favor them here.

Milwaukee’s prior success is already baked into the number. Dallas’s early issues have pushed their value downward. The rest advantage and urgency edge both sit with the Mavericks, and the line is telling us clearly that this is not Milwaukee’s spot, even if they look easy here. Had the Mavs had any kind of curb appeal, they’d be the chalk. Instead, we get them at plus money which is value.

We say it all the time – we play numbers and not teams. The Mavericks epitomize this because no one would dare venture on them here. But that’s where the equity lives. Dallas outright.

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