Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MILWAUKEE -4 over Chicago

United Center – Chicago, IL

NBA Cup

8:00 PM ET. The Bulls come in 6–1 straight up with a sparkling 5-1-1 ATS mark, cashing tickets at a rate no one saw coming after last season’s disappointing play-in tournament flameout. They’ve become one of the early-season darlings of the betting market, a team that just keeps rewarding anyone willing to jump aboard. And that’s the problem. When a team starts minting money this quickly, the market inevitably overcorrects upward, and the point spread becomes inflated by sentiment rather than substance.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee enters this contest looking like the exact opposite. The Bucks are coming off an embarrassing 28-point loss at Toronto, preceded by a shaky 117–115 escape against Indiana and a home loss to Sacramento as a 6.5-point favorite. Their stock has plunged, their form is being questioned, and their marketability has shifted dramatically. Yet despite all of that, Milwaukee is still laying four points. That tells you everything.

If Chicago’s hot start were truly reflective of long-term form, and if Milwaukee’s struggles were as damning as recent box scores suggest, this line would be shorter. Instead, oddsmakers are signaling that this is a correction spot — a moment where the Bulls’ inflated performance meets an opponent ready to reassert itself.

The NBA Cup stage only heightens that dynamic. A tournament that the Deer know how to excel in, after all. Chicago is running hot well beyond expectation, and these types of extended ATS streaks almost always end explosively. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is perfectly positioned as the buy-low side — undervalued, under-believed, and catching a Chicago team priced at their peak. It won’t feel comfortable backing a team coming off a 28-point beating, but that’s exactly why we dare venture onward. This number says the Bucks show up, stabilize, and right the ship. Underlay.

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