Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

112th Grey Cup - Winnipeg, MB

Montreal +160 over Saskatchewan

6:00 PM ET. Saskatchewan is being priced like a coronation is on deck, not a football game. The market sees 12-6, a loud fanbase, and a defense that led the league in points allowed. We see a flawed favorite stepping into a matchup against the one team that already cracked their code — and did it without their real QB.

Montreal’s September trip to Regina wasn’t a fluke, wasn’t smoke and mirrors, and wasn’t a weird scheduling spot. It was a 48-31 track meet where McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 379 yards, Tyson Philpot turned into Jerry Rice for a night (238 yards), and the Als’ run game rolled up 125 more on the ground. The only thing missing? Davis Alexander, who didn’t play in either regular-season meeting. Now the undefeated (13-0) starter finally gets his shot on the biggest stage.

Alexander at 80% is still the most dangerous dual-threat QB in this game. Saskatchewan’s defense thrives on structure and leverage — both of which break down when a quarterback can move the launch point and stress horizontal rules. If Alexander’s hamstring lets him escape even semi-regularly, the Als have the blueprint to attack Saskatchewan the same way BC and Calgary did when they caught the Riders flat-footed. Montreal doesn’t need to reinvent anything — they just need their real QB available.

The Riders are being priced like the better team, but take away the helmets and logos and here’s what you really have: a team that peaked early, limped into September, and needed late magic last week just to escape BC at home. Trevor Harris is steady, accurate and smart, but he’s also 39, immobile, and facing a Montreal defense that tied for first in sacks and disguises pressure as well as any unit in the league. The Riders’ OL has protected well, but they haven’t faced this kind of movement and coverage variation since — you guessed it — the Alouettes carved them up in September.

Montreal also enters playing its best football of the season: seven straight meaningful wins, a defense that forces mistakes without gambling, and a coaching staff (Maas/Thorpe) pushing every right button. They’ve already eliminated Hamilton and Toronto in previous years, they’ve already won Grey Cups as underdogs, and they’re now chasing the East’s fourth straight Grey Cup — something the West hasn’t managed since the 1970s.

Wrong side favored.

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