Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

B.C. Lions -7½ over Toronto

BC Place – Vancouver, BC

8:00 PM ET. The market is clinging to Toronto’s win over the Lions back in August like it means something here. It doesn’t. That was a one-off in their own building when Nick Arbuckle went nuclear and everything the Argos touched turned to gold. Since then, Toronto has come back to earth hard. They were lucky to even be in the game against Montreal last week, their margin for error is microscopic, and this roster no longer resembles anything close to a Grey Cup contender.

Let’s cut through the noise: Chad Kelly is still out. Arbuckle returns from a calf injury, and the market is treating that like the cavalry has arrived. Forgive us if we’re not buying it. Arbuckle has been serviceable, but he’s not a savior. Toronto is 6-3 ATS as an underdog over the past nine, which sounds impressive until you realize it’s largely noise propped up by variance. Teams covering as dogs when they’re losing outright is not a profile you want to chase when they’re up against a buzzsaw.

That buzzsaw is B.C. Nathan Rourke has turned this Lions offence into a pinball machine. They’ve scored at least 33 points in seven straight, hung 52 on Calgary last week, and Rourke is in video-game mode: 300+ yards in six of his last seven starts, 12 passing TDs, and he’s now running in scores like he’s Lamar Jackson North. Toronto’s defense, which has been torched both in the air and on the ground, is now tasked with stopping that freight train. Good luck.

This isn’t about Toronto being “desperate.” That’s a tired narrative. The Als loss last week was the backbreaker. They now sit four points behind Montreal in the East with the tiebreaker gone. Sure, technically they’re still alive, but needing to chase down multiple teams with three weeks left is a fantasy. This is a nothing game for the Argos dressed up as meaningful.

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