Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +4½ over Montreal

Molson Stadium – Montreal, QC

7:00 PM ET. The market lost its mind the second Davis Alexander was confirmed back under center for the Als. Montreal opened -1½, and within hours it ballooned up to -4½. That’s a three-point move on a QB who hasn’t taken a snap in over two months. The narrative is simple: Alexander is 8-0 as a starter, the Als are “finally healthy,” and momentum is on their side after back-to-back wins with MBT keeping the seat warm. Sounds good in a press release, but it’s flimsy when you start peeling it back.

Let’s start with Alexander. Yes, the Als are undefeated with him under center, but this is football, not blackjack. That perfect record is propped up by plenty of variance, a defense that bailed him out repeatedly, and a schedule that broke right. He hasn’t played since July 17th. If you think you just slot him back in and pick up where he left off, you’ve bought into the sales pitch, not the reality.

Now flip it to Calgary. The Stamps are coming off two ugly losses, including getting torched by B.C. last week. Vernon Adams Jr. is banged up, the defense has been leaky without Orimolade, and nobody is running to the window to back this team. Which is precisely why they’re offering value. The Stamps are toxic stock — and that’s where the value always is.

What we have here is a four-point swing entirely based on Montreal’s shiny narrative. The Als are suddenly being priced like a juggernaut when the truth is they’re a middle-of-the-pack team getting market credit they haven’t earned. This is a nothing game for Montreal in the standings — they already know they’ll host a playoff game — and Calgary, despite their struggles, is still very much in the fight for positioning out West.

Alexander’s return is already baked into the number. The Als are being sold at their ceiling, while Calgary is being sold at their basement.

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